Optimizing Innovation and Calamity

Research Area: Volume 4 Issue 1, Jan. 2015 Year: 2015
Type of Publication: Article Keywords: Risk Compensation, Risk Homeostasis, Unintended Consequences, Risk Analysis, Failure Rate, Product Safety, Defect Ratio, Failures in Time, Innovation, Productivity
Authors:
  • Robert L. Shuler
Journal: IJEIR Volume: 4
Number: 1 Pages: 50-56
Month: Jan.-Feb.
ISSN: 2277-5668
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to develop a model to quantify both economic and technical processes (e.g. engineering and policy formation), in regards to safety (or crash rate) and features (innovation). Empirically a relationship may be construed from findings of risk compensation or even risk homeostasis, but these are psychological factors and applicable to individuals, not corporations. Our method is to rigorously derive a microeconomic model showing that risk changes can be explained by utility optimizing providers (businesses, governments, engineers) and consumers (users, citizens). The model terms are development, manufacturing & testing costs, utility to consumers (innovation), crash rate and defect ratio. Results show some unexpected results that may guide corporate or government planning.

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